New Member of TDLResearch Team - Rebalancing Chinesean Style

I am excited to introduce a new team member of the TDL Research team.  Rafaella Cuff is a recent graduate of Louisiana State Universyty's economics program, and will soon be starting Brandeis University's Master of International Economics and Finance.  Originally from the U.K.

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TDLR Macro Note

Algos, blackboxxes, quants, flash based sell off? Everyone has a theory why the market melted down last Thursday, but how about we look at the facts. The DL will leave speculation up to the "new media" and "old media" outlets. They are probably getting ready to run a "special report" very soon.

TDLR Macro Note

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Thoughts on the Deepwater Horizon Oil Leak

The environmental catastrophe that has developed in the Gulf of Mexico after the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon hit close to home.  I grew up in New Orleans and Mandveille and currently live in Baton Rouge. The leak threatens Louisiana's economy as well as many residents' way of life.  Even those not employed in oil or fishing industries include fishing and hunting as a passtime.  Additionally, I can't imagine restaurants in the area without fresh gulf fish and other seafood on the menu.

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Robert Donohue Joins TDLR

I’m excited to announce Robert Donohue will be joining the Davian Letter Research team. Robert is a Natural Gas and power trader who also has experience in equities as well as other trading roles. His roots are in top down macro. He uses technical analysis to gain perspective and search for secular themes combined with a knack for trading the tape and monitoring news flow to find what matters and filter out the noise. His position in Nat Gas and power trading gives him a unique perspective and ability to communicate with industry players that drive markets.

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TDLR - FX/IR/Metals & Econ Data Notes

TDL Research is off to a great start with a killer core team including myself, ZMoose and Zealand Browne.  If you have ot already signed up for the free 30 day trial, do it! There is no reason not to.  Everyone loves a risk free trade right? The trial lets you check out our research risk free.

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TDL Research

As many regular readers of The Davian Letter may have noticed, I have been m.i.a. for the past few weeks. I took a hiatus of sorts to wrap up the Fall semester here at LSU and now that finals are over and markets have gone quiet (relatively) for the holidays, am relaxing a bit before getting back in the swing of things after Christmas to prepare for what should be an exciting 2010 in markets, but more importantly for The Davian Letter with the launch of Stock.ly and Davian Letter Research.

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FX/Eco Data Notes - BoJ

The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged as expected, leaving the overnight call rate at 0.1%. The only thing I was looking for was tweaks to the language in the statement. The BoJ did in fact add some slightly hawkish elements.

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FX/Eco Data Notes

U.S. Headline CPI increased 0.3% MoM, slightly above expectations of 0.2% MoM. Prices were less negative on a YoY basis at -0.2%. Core MoM was flat from September at 0.2%. YoY core was up 1.7%. YoY headline should be moving into positive territory soon, but at the same time, there is nothing to indicate any rapid price increases yet. BoE minutes showed that two members of the MPC dissented against the decision the leave the bank rate at 0.5% and increase the asset purchase program by £25 billion to £200 billion and complete purchases in the next three months.

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FX/Eco Data Notes - U.K. CPI, U.S. PPI & Fedspeak

In what seemed to be a complete 180 from Chairman Bernanke’s speech yesterday, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said “Higher rates than called for based on purely macroeconomic conditions may help forestall a potentially damaging buildup of leverage and an asset-price boom,” Then qualified those remarks by saying, “use of monetary policy for these ends necessarily compromises the attainment of other macroeconomic goals,” (full story at Bloomberg) The second part says

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FX/Eco Data Notes

I got to my desk this morning as jobless claims were released to see 502k, slightly better than consensus of 510k and proceeded to watch treasuries get whacked. Equities wee bid up only to stall at 1100(in ES futures).

In other data, Euro Zone industrial production increased by 0.3%, slightly lower than expectations of around 0.6%. Swedish CPI was -1.5% YoY.

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