China Cyber Wars?

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Anthony Davian Dasan Philip Dunham StilettoStocks Barbarian Capital Zachary Musso Dexter David Stone Airelon MDabbles
Wednesday, January 13th, 2010
By Dasan 888
dasan's picture

I'm probably just hopped up on green tea, but the news of Google possibly pulling out of China is disconcerting to me.  In the big picture, it feels like China's global trade methods are about as honest as the guys selling fake watches on Canal Street.  I hope it's just my mind playing tricks on me. Some people are saying the Google threat to pull out of China is only a PR stunt.  I'm not that cynical yet.

GOOG: may pull out of China due to theft of code, hacking of gmail accounts of human rights activists and inability to run unfiltered search. Potentially positive for BIDU short-term, but long-term, the vibrancy of the internet in China is in doubt. (also shows why my thesis on China of betting on companies with government backing is correct) GOOG gets only a small portion (1-2%) of revenue and probably almost zero profit from china operations anyway, so it is worth it to them to fight this battle.  This highlights the biggest issue with China on the global economic stage: they do not follow international norms in terms of intellectual property rights or fair trade of knowledge based industries. It is questionable whether they can develop or maintain economic power in a modern information economy while stifling freedom of the press.  (Now is a good time to sell BIDU stock and buy GOOG)

NFLX: adds Nintendo Wii to Watch Now streaming service.  This adds 25M units, but these are only standard definition, not HD.  Now all 3 consoles are aboard, so growth will have to be organic.

AAPL: eps $11.70 in FY2010 based on new GAAP standards (could be 12+), plus $37B in cash, actual p/e is only 13x. 

HOGS: cancels call with Roth capital and will do public call on Thursday 8:00 am instead.

SYMC: raised to outperform at Wells Fargo.  Seems like an easy “PC upgrade cycle” winner.

V: new “overweight” at MS. 

Bernstein has negative outlook on Chinese telecom industry fundamentals.  Slowing growth, ARPU pressure, costs rising in build of rural markets.


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