Today I'm not going to take the time to remove the jargon or acronyms. My apologies to normal people that don't think like a tech analyst.
• Chinese stocks down across the board on interest rate hikes in China, growing concern over durability white-hot Chinese economy.
• HDD numbers from IDC – raising 1H10 units. 1Q10 now 151.2M v prior 147.6M and 2Q10 to 148.6M from 141.8M. estimates that WDC 4Q09 revenue will range from $2.33-2.43B v cons $2.33B
• MGM/LVS/WYNN: S&P thinks gaming revenue in Vegas will be flat to slightly up (which would actually be a very positive development from down 12% in 2009) and Macau up 10-15%, which seems extremely low, considering the numbers are up 40% a month the last few months.
• AC gaming win only down 9.8% for Dec 09, sadly, this number is an improvement. Definitely getting “Less bad” in AC despite naysayers and PA competition.
• Meanwhile, GS upgrades MGM today. Says SOTP values MGM at $16. Vegas trends getting “less bad,” MGM under-valued vs. peers, can clean up balance sheet. (GS also begrudgingly raised price targets on LVS to 17.75 and WYNN to 64.
• ERTS slashes guidance – no surprise – iPhone gaming platform must be hurting them badly – ASPs are much lower and barriers to entry are almost zero. Everyone will blame other things - but they are just rearranging chairs on the Titanic.
• AAPL/PANL: Apple has supposedly pre-ordered every 10.1” multi-touch LCD and OLED panel from Asian suppliers.
• GOOG: MSFT says Nexus1 initiative will scare away other Android licensees. (good for competitors of Android, such as MSFT, AAPL, RIMM)
• RIMM and AAPL integrate software and hardware not due to obstinacy, but due to the dictates of market:
• Bernstein on mobile broadband: 2009 statistics: smartphones up 22%, mobile data traffic up 160%, data revenue up 16%. 3G equipment sales up 30% despite CAPEX squeeze.
• ELX preannounced revenue of $107.5M, above guidance of $88-92M. read-through: positive for EMC, 20% of ELX revenue, and confirms good storage trends (NTAP) Blair raises EMC to new “outperform.” FORM preannounces a miss – SCE stocks still flailing around.
• MOT: Avian says EMS business worth $4.59/share, cash adds $1.41/share, total fair value to $6.00. With stock at $7.68, this implies Home/Networks and Mobile Devices worth about $1.68/share or $3.9B. Some takeout rumor says Home/Network price $4.5B. Therefore, Avian believes entire company worth $10. (Another way to look at this is the market is now realizing mobile devices is still worth zero)
• BIDU: Pali cuts estimates for 2010. 1. PRC government is shutting down “unhealthy internet content” which affects BIDU advertisers. 2. Phoenix Nest transition may be slow, 3. Weak seasonality. Wow- in China now all internet sites must register with the government. Hard to imagine this policy leads to innovation and growth. Of 3.0M sites in china, only 1.7M are individually operated. These policies could stunt internet growth in china significantly.
• DELL: raised to buy by Atlantic Equites, $20 price target (I expect high 20s to 30 range for DELL in a year)
• MU notes: 2006-2009 worst memory downturn in history, CAPEX slashed, return to profitability. Even CAPEX up a lot in 2010 will be up from a low base, and mostly spent for process upgrades, not new capacity. Windows 7 is shipping on 64 bit systems, which do not have the 3.5-4.0GB DRAM limit, so systems can be built above that. Systems are shipping to enterprise with standard 4.0GB, even $800 desktops with 8GB (compared to ours that currently have 2.0GB of DRAM). MU expects 100% demand growth in NAND in 2010. inventories are very low and prices went up in Dec for the first time in 15 years.