Action Thursday

With CES, numerous tech conferences, and several "Tech Year Ahead" calls, there is a lot of action today.

California to US: “subsidize our misgovernance" as they look for billions in aid from the rest of the nation.

T: will run other Android handsets – seems like end of iPhone exclusivity is inevitable.

GOOG: Nexus one – Google v wireless carriers? VZ cutting guidance, T may be losing iPhone exclusivity – I’m not a fan of the carriers.

Retail sales: other than ANF, looks like a nice beat across the board, but stocks dropping anyway, probably whisper numbers are higher. ANF: It’s the same every month, they missed expectations on SSS.  -19% v consensus -12% (which I thought was way too high)  This is a pattern, miss expectations, stock falls, stock rises during next month.  AEO 7% beat -2%, ARO 10% beat 5%.  HOTT -10.9% missed -8.3%, cut guidance.

LVS: Bernstein raises price target to $22 from $18.  Janet Brashear was the only analyst at a major firm last year to have the courage to put a buy rating on LVS.  She cites Cotai lots 5&6, Singapore open, and strong numbers in Macau.  (Bethlehem slots have been underperforming – 5^th out of 9 places in PA market)  Cotai 5/6 could generate $600M of EBITDA in 2012!

Bernstein disagrees with me on Handsets: they like MOT, hate RIMM, says Droid hurts RIMM.  They like NOK (they’ve been wrong on this name for two years) and even Ericson. They also don’t like “follower new entrants” like PALM although they don’t mention them by name.  I like: long AAPL/RIMM, short PALM/MOT.  They like: long AAPL/MOT  short PALM/RIMM.  Avian also “defends” MOT, says new software better, will have smartphones in China in time for new year holiday. 

PALM: launches at T and VZ must already be in their guidance.  CES event today at 11 am Vegas time.

BKS cuts 3Q eps to 1.20-1.40 from 1.30-1.50, estimates were 1.42. 

GME off 15% after cutting full year EPS guidance.  (has to be getting hurt by the iPhone/iPod move into games, just so cheap and easy to buy games on the handset.)

MGM: JPM raises 1 year target to $16 from $14, cites improving trends in Vegas, good bookings for conventions.

AAPL: tablet may have a HDD?  One analyst estimates BOM of $347.23. 

PANL: new google phone 3.7” AMOLED display was made by Samsung. (buy PANL’s chemicals).  SYNA touchscreen chip, QCOM snapdragon ARM CPU